Hurricane season starts June 1
It’s that time of year once again in Florida where forecasters, municipalities, and residents alike are all on the lookout for potential storms.
June 1 marks the official start to the Atlantic hurricane season. While top weather experts have predicted a “below average” season in 2026, that doesn’t mean those who call Southwest Florida home should take this year lightly.
“It only takes one storm in the eastern Gulf to make the season noteworthy to Florida’s west coast,” said Lee County Public Safety Chief of Emergency Management John Schultz. “Preparedness is the entire community’s responsibility. Lee County Emergency Management encourages the community to be prepared for this hurricane season, regardless of the forecast. And we stand ready to activate, implement our plans and leverage our local, state and federal partnerships. We are prepared.”
Colorado State University hurricane researchers have predicted a “somewhat below-average” in its initial 2026 forecast.
Citing a “robust” El Niño as a primary factor, the CSU team are predicting 13 named storms, of which they anticipate six to become hurricanes, and two to become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
CSU officials said these numbers are below the long-term season average of 14, seven, and three, respectively. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
*** *** ***
The e-edition of the SWFL Hurricane Guide, a publication of the Breeze Newspapers may be found HERE.
*** *** ***
In its hurricane landfalling probability for 2025, researchers put the likelihood of a major hurricane for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas at 20% (average from 1880-2020 is 27%).
According to AccuWeather, the 2026 season is expected to fall below the 10-year average for both total storms and hurricanes, even at the higher end of AccuWeather’s forecast.
All-in-all, AccuWeather is forecasting 11 to 16 named storms, with four to seven being hurricanes. Of those four to seven, AccuWeather is predicting to two to four will be “major” hurricanes, or storms that are Category 3 or higher. As for direct impacts to the U.S., AccuWeather experts are forecasting three to five total, with the central and eastern Gulf Coast noted as areas with higher-than-historical-average risk of “significant” tropical impacts this year.
AccuWeather experts expect El Niño to increase disruptive wind shear and reduce storm activity, most notably later on in the season. Long-range experts of AccuWeather state there is a 15% chance of a “Super El Niño” developing in the second half of the hurricane season.
County officials warn of complacency, especially following a year that did not see a hurricane make landfall in the U.S.
County officials have also taken lessons from past storms, and remind residents to do that same.
“We learned from Hurricanes Ian, Helene and Milton that people took the evacuation order as ‘time to activate my storm plan’ – such as pack medicine, find storm documents, prepare homes – when that should have already been done prior to the evacuation announcement,” Schultz said. “In fact, people should enact their preparedness plans as we all monitor a storm in the days before evacuation orders and potential landfall.
“Even in advance of that – like now in June on days where there is no storm threat – residents should take time to make a plan to know where they will evacuate. If you have family members who are very young or very old, why not do a dry run so everyone’s comfortable with the plan? Remember, evacuating tens of miles, not hundreds of miles is all that’s necessary. Identify a friend’s or family member’s home now outside of your designated evacuation zone so you are ready.”
Schultz added residents should know their evacuation zone and flood zone, have a plan in advance, and have a well-stocked emergency supply kit.
“And should we have a storm, remember to pull permits for your repairs afterward,” he said.
The City of Cape Coral will host its annual Hurricane Expo this Saturday, May 30, from 9 a.m. to 1 p.m. at the German American Club, at 2101 SW Pine Island Road.
This free event offers residents a comprehensive opportunity to prepare for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Attendees will have access to valuable resources and information from more than 30 organizations, including key community partners like LCEC, the U.S. Coast Guard, Lee Health, and more.
The Hurricane Expo is open to the public and designed to help the community prepare for the 2026 hurricane season before it arrives.
For more information, visit CapeCoral.gov.
To reach CJ HADDAD, please email cjhaddad@breezenewspapers.com