Erin expected to become first hurricane
No Florida impact projected but Southwest Florida can expect more rain next week
While the Atlantic hurricane season started back in June, forecasters are expecting the first major hurricane of the year to form this weekend.
Tropical Storm Erin, as of Thursday, was located 890 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands, with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph according to the National Weather Service.
“A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, with this motion expected to continue into the weekend,” wrote NOAA Senior Hurricane Specialist Jack Beven. “On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend.”
According to AccuWeather meteorologists, Erin is “expected to strengthen into a powerful hurricane and could bring heavy rain, damaging winds and dangerous surf” to the Leeward Islands, as well as Puerto Rico this weekend.
“Erin is expected to strengthen and become a hurricane by Friday,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said in a Wednesday post. “Atmospheric and oceanic conditions northeast of the Lesser Antilles will favor additional and rapid strengthening, with Erin to become a major Category 3 hurricane on Saturday.”
AccuWeather experts added that there is a window of opportunity for Erin to rapidly intensify into a Category 4 hurricane this weekend or early next week.
According to major weather outlet models, Erin shows it will continue west-northwest and steer clear of Florida.
“This weekend into early next week is when this system will begin to turn more to the north between a developing break in high pressure,” wrote The Weather Channel‘s Jennifer Gray and Jonathan Belles on Wednesday. “Where that turn occurs between the area of high pressure over the eastern U.S. and another one east of Bermuda is still uncertain and will determine what, if any, land areas might see impacts next week.
“The probability of a landfall from Erin along the U.S. East Coast is low at this time. However, interests along the East Coast should continue to monitor this system for possible changes. Erin will generate high surf and dangerous rip currents along the U.S. East Coast next week, no matter where it tracks.”
Here in Southwest Florida, it’s been a wet few weeks, with more rain forecasted to arrive early next week.
According to data provided by Lee County, various areas across the region have seen high rain totals just two weeks into August.
At the Agualinda Water Plant in Cape Coral, 5.53 inches of rain has been recorded thus far this month. Bowman’s Beach in Sanibel has seen a staggering 14.44 inches this month, with nearly 10 inches coming down over the last five days. St. James city has received 11.34 inches of rain in August, the second-highest total throughout Lee County.
Many places throughout the area are nearing or have surpassed the average totals for August when looking back, as the mean monthly rainfall for August in Lee County since 1992 is 9.69 inches.
On Wednesday, Gov. Ron DeSantis wrote in a post on “X,” “Models for Hurricane Erin currently have it turning north and staying far away from Florida. We continue to monitor for any shifts.”
To reach CJ HADDAD, please email cjhaddad@breezenewspapers.com