2026 HURRICANE SEASON: Forecasters foresee less activity, but caution ‘it only takes one’
With the official start to the Atlantic hurricane season beginning June 1, top forecasters have already released their predictions for the upcoming season.
One of the nation’s top forecasters when it comes to the Atlantic hurricane season released its first predictions for the 2026 season, with some encouraging news for Southwest Floridians.
Colorado State University hurricane researchers have predicted a “somewhat below-average” season in their initial 2026 forecast.
Citing a “robust” El Niño as a primary factor, the CSU team are predicting 13 named storms, of which they anticipate six to become hurricanes, and two to become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
CSU officials said these numbers are below the long-term season average of 14, seven, and three, respectively. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
“So far, the 2026 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to the 2006, 2009, 2015 and 2023 seasons,” said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU and lead author of the report, in a release.
“Our analog seasons ranged from well below-average Atlantic hurricane activity to somewhat above average. While the average of our analog seasons is somewhat below normal, the large spread in observed activity in our analog years highlights the high levels of uncertainty that typically are associated with our early April outlook.”
As always, hurricane activity comes down to the presence of El Niño, which is a natural climate pattern characterized by the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
CSU officials stated the tropical Pacific currently has weak La Niña conditions.
“La Niña is effectively the opposite of El Niño and is characterized by cooler than normal waters in the eastern and central tropical Pacific,” CSU’s report stated. “However, these conditions are forecast to rapidly transition to El Niño in the next few months. While the intensity of the likely El Niño is uncertain, the CSU team anticipates that a moderate to strong El Niño is most likely by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season from August-October.”
CSU officials stated that currently, waters in the western tropical Atlantic are warmer than normal, while waters in the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic are slightly cooler than normal.
“Overall, currently observed sea surface temperatures across the tropical and subtropical Atlantic present mixed signals for the upcoming hurricane season,” CSU’s report states. “Warmer waters in the western Atlantic would favor above-normal activity, while cooler waters in the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic would favor below-normal activity. A warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water. Additionally, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricane formation.”
In its hurricane landfalling probability for 2025, researchers put the likelihood of a major hurricane for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas at 20% (average from 1880-2020 is 27%).
As always, the researchers caution coastal residents to take proper precautions.
“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,” said Michael Bell in the release.
This is the 43rd year that CSU has issued an Atlantic forecast. The CSU team will issue updates to this forecast on June 10, July 8 and Aug. 5.
According to AccuWeather, the 2026 season is expected to fall below the 10-year average for both total storms and hurricanes, even at the higher end of AccuWeather’s forecast.
“It’s very important that everybody from South Texas all the way to Maine prepares equally for each and every hurricane season, regardless of the forecast,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva in a release. “Even if it’s expected to be a slightly below average hurricane season, we can still see major hits across the United States.”
All-in-all, AccuWeather is forecasting 11 to 16 named storms, with four to seven being hurricanes. Of those four to seven, AccuWeather is predicting to two to four will be “major” hurricanes, or storms that are Category 3 or higher. As for direct impacts to the U.S., AccuWeather experts are forecasting three to five total, with the central and eastern Gulf Coast noted as areas with higher-than-historical-average risk of “significant” tropical impacts this year.
AccuWeather experts expect El Niño to increase disruptive wind shear and reduce storm activity, most notably later on in the season. Long-range experts of AccuWeather state there is a 15% chance of a “Super El Niño” developing in the second half of the hurricane season.
“If a Super El Niño occurs, there could be even less activity in the Atlantic,” experts stated.
Another factor going into the season could be exceptionally warm Atlantic waters.
“Water temperatures across much of the Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic are forecast to reach exceptionally warm levels again this summer. That heat extends hundreds of feet below the surface, providing additional fuel for storms,” DaSilva said. “As a result, we are very concerned about the risk of rapid intensification this hurricane season.”
When it comes to U.S. landfall potential, experts state that storms may form in the Gulf, western Caribbean, or western Atlantic off the Southeast coast. When storms develop near the states, there is less time for those facing impacts to prepare.
“Storms that form within a few hundred miles of the coast can leave people, businesses, and officials with less time to prepare and evacuate,” DaSilva explained. “These ‘homegrown development’ storms that spin up near the U.S. coast can pose bigger threats with a lot less time to react, compared to storms that form off the coast of Africa and take a week or more to trek across the open Atlantic.”
AccuWeather experts warn of complacency, especially following a year that did not see a hurricane make landfall in the U.S.
“There is no reason to let your guard down this year. It only takes one storm to cause major damage, disruption and heartache,” DaSilva said. “Review your insurance coverage, safety plans, and local evacuation routes now. Make sure your emergency supplies are stocked up.”
Cone map gets updated look
Among its improvements for the 2026 hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center is implementing what it says is an improved hurricane track cone map.
“The tropical cyclone graphic helps communities remain vigilant from the dangers posed by wind hazards associated with hurricanes and tropical storms, including in locations away from the coast,” the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in a release. “In 2026, the forecast cone will now include tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas. The additional information follows a successful experimental phase last year, which demonstrated the improved forecast cone enabled inland communities to better understand and prepare for the danger posed by tropical cyclone winds.”
According to the National Hurricane Center release, the new cone graphic:
• Incorporates all land-based (coastal and inland) tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings in effect for the continental United States, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands;
• Uses single shading for the entire 5-day outlook cone;
• Legend depicts symbols for areas where a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are both in effect (represented by diagonal pink and blue lines);
• Full and intermediate Tropical Cyclone Advisories are/will be publicly available on hurricanes.gov.
NHC also will introduce a new experimental version of the NHC’s Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone, the release states. Since its debut in 2002, the cone has shown where the tropical cyclone’s forecast center is likely to go, based on past forecast calculations.
– Compiled by CJ Haddad
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category 1
Winds: 75 to 95 mph
Damage: Homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages.
Category 2
• Winds: 96 to 110 mph
• Damage: Homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last several days.
Category 3
• Winds: 111 to 130 mph
• Damage: Homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.
Category 4
• Winds: 131 to 155 mph
• Damage: Homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks. Some of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
Category 5
• Winds: More than 155 mph
• Damage: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
– National Hurricane Center
2026 Hurricane Names
• Arthur
• Bertha
• Cristobal
• Dolly
• Edouard
• Fay
• Gonzalo
• Hanna
• Isaias
• Josephine
• Kyle
• Leah
• Marco
• Nana
• Omar
• Paulette
• Rene
• Sally
• Teddy
• Vicky
• Wilfred
Source: World Meteorological Association
To reach CJ Haddad, please email cjhadda@breezenewspapers.com