Geri and Bob Quinn

Now that we are into the eighth week of 2024, the main takeaways in the Cape Coral single-family home market involve some of the more typical winter month seasonal patterns. We are seeing an influx of active listings coming onto the market as the inventory of homes listed for sale in the MLS continues to build, creating even more competition between sellers in what has clearly become a buyer’s market.

January’s closed home sales numbers were on the tepid side, which is not necessarily out of the ordinary. Fortunately, we started to see the number of homes going under contract with buyers as pending sales spike seasonally higher beginning around mid-January and continuing to ramp up into February. At the same time, the leading daily market statistic continues to be price reductions being made by sellers hoping to find a buyer in a crowded field of homes on the market. New construction “spec homes” being built by a wide range of local and national builders are providing stiff competition to the existing home sale segment of our market with about 40% of the current number of pending home sales in the Cape going to newly built homes. The bottom line decision for a lot of buyers seems to be coming down to the combination of competitive prices and incentives that builders are offering to beat out “regular” sellers of older homes.

To give you a sense of the significant change in the dynamics of the Cape Coral single-family home market, two years ago on Feb. 22, 2022, there were only 424 active listings in the Multiple Listing Service and the median list price was $597,450. At that time, as soon as most homes came onto the market as a new listing they were swarmed in a form of panic buying the likes of which we had never seen here locally, in what turned out to be the final stages of the sweeping surge higher in our post-COVID market boom. Asking prices were immediately bid-up above their initial list price in a multiple buyer, multiple offer bidding war frenzy.

Based on our weekly market surveys, the median list price for homes in the Cape peaked at $610,000 on April 19, 2022, about a month after the Federal Reserve launched what turned out to be its most aggressive series of interest rate hikes in history. By Feb. 21 of last year, we were up to 1,349 active single-family home listings in the Cape through the MLS and the median list price had dropped to $519,000. As of this past Tuesday, Feb. 20, the number of active listings in the MLS had reached 2,797 Cape Coral homes on the market, with the median list price settling in at $499,999.

The seasonal surge in pending home sales in the Cape has jumped from only 427 homes under contract with a buyer on Jan. 1 of this year, to 764 pending home sales in the pipeline on this past Tuesday, Feb. 20. The current median pending sales price, which reflects the pricing pressures in our market, came in at $410,450. Surprising to many, a total of 300 of the current 764 pending sales in our market are for new construction homes, with 73% of these 300 new construction sales priced at $450,000 and under. Back on Feb. 21, 2023, there were a total of 803 Cape Coral homes under contract with a buyer, and two years ago on Feb. 22, 2022, there were 1,025 pending sales in the pipeline.

In the overall Cape Coral single-family home market, there were 273 closed home sales in January, which was 16.3% lower than the 326 closed sales in January 2023, and 29.3% below the 386 closed sales in December. The median sales price in the Cape’s overall single-family home market was $425,000 in January, or 6.3% higher than the $400,000 posted in January 2023, and up 9.1% from $389,400 in December. The monthly supply of unsold homes in the overall Cape home market came in at 13 months in January, which was up 85.7% from 7 months of supply in January 2023, and 62.5% above the eight months of unsold supply in December. This was the highest supply of unsold homes in our overall market since the 16 months of supply back in January of 2009.

Indirect gulf access canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family indirect gulf access canal home segment (meaning canal homes with bridges in the canal system), there were 32 closed home sales in January. This was 52.4% higher than the 21 closed sales in January 2023, and 88.2% more than the 17 closed sales in December. The median sales price in this segment was $772,500 in January, which was 0.3% lower than the $775,000 posted in January 2023, and it was 9% below the $849,000 in December. The monthly supply of unsold homes in this segment was up 27.3% to 14 months in January, compared to the 11 months of supply in January 2023, but down 36.4% from the spike to 22 months in December.

Direct sailboat access canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family direct sailboat access canal home segment (meaning canal homes with no bridges in the canal system to get out to open water), there were 27 closed home sales in January. This was 27% lower than the 37 closed sales in January 2023, but 17.4% above the 23 sales in December. The median sales price in this segment was $840,000 in January, which was 25.4% above the $670,000 posted in January 2023, and 4% higher than the $808,000 in December. Keep in mind that the median sales price numbers for last January were skewed lower than normal due to the distressed sales of storm damaged homes which created some price distortions in this segment. The monthly supply of unsold homes in this segment was up 133% at 14 months in January, from the six months of supply recorded in January 2023, and it came in equal to the 14 months of supply posted in December.

Freshwater canal and lake homes

In the Cape Coral single-family freshwater canal and lake home segment, which consists of landlocked canals and lakes with no access to the river or to the Gulf of Mexico by boat, there were 33 closed home sales in January. This was 6.5% higher than the 31 closed sales in January 2023, but down 5.7% from the 35 closed sales in December. The median sales price in this segment was $490,000 in January, or 4.3% above the $470,000 posted in January 2023, but 2% lower than the $500,000 in December. The monthly supply of unsold homes in this segment came in at 12 months in January, up 50% compared to 8 months of supply in January 2023, and 20% higher than the 10 months of supply in December.

Dry lot homes

In the Cape Coral single-family dry lot (non-canal) home segment, there were 179 closed home sales in January, which was 23.8% lower than the 235 closed sales in January 2023, and 42.3% below the 310 closed sales in December. The median sales price in this segment was $380,000 in January, or 6.4% above the $357,300 posted in January 2023, and up 1.3% from $375,000 in December. The monthly supply of unsold homes in this segment came in at 12 months in January, up 71.4% compared to the seven months of supply in January of 2023, and 100% higher than the 6 months of unsold supply in December.

The sales data for this article was obtained from the Florida Realtors Multiple Listing Service Matrix for Lee County, Fla., as of Feb. 18, 2024, unless otherwise noted. It was compiled by Bob and Geri Quinn and it includes information specifically for Cape Coral single-family homes, and does not include condominiums, short sales or foreclosures. The data and statistics are believed to be reliable, however, they could be updated and revised periodically, and are subject to change without notice. The Quinns are a husband and wife real estate team with the RE/MAX Realty Team office in Cape Coral. They have lived in Cape Coral for over 44 years. Geri has been a full-time Realtor since 2005, and Bob joined Geri as a full-time Realtor in 2014. Their real estate practice is mainly focused on Cape Coral residential property and vacant lots.