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Homing In | Cape’s third quarter results reflect rising home inventories

By GERI and BOB QUINN - Homing In | Oct 26, 2023

Geri and Bob Quinn

We continue to come across a lot of conflicting data and opinions about the current state of the real estate market, along with the multitude of “expert” opinions about where home prices are headed next. With mortgage rates now pushing 8%, concerns about housing affordability continue to grow, along with the supply of Cape Coral homes being listed for sale.

Generally speaking, our median home sales prices have remained in a somewhat lower but tight range in 2023, as the various segments of our market have shifted into either a neutral or a seller’s market in the third quarter of this year. This shift has coincided with the build-up in the inventory of homes listed for sale. Anecdotally, one of leading daily market indicators is the number of price reductions being made by sellers as they try to attract a buyer. The other big indicator of a slowing market are the incentives being offered by home builders trying to attract “traffic” to their new developments throughout Southwest Florida.

As of Tuesday, Oct. 24, there were 2,225 active listings for Cape Coral single-family homes in the MLS at list prices ranging from $249,900 to $11.9 million, with the second highest-priced home listed at $6.9 million. The median list price came in at $508,805 in our weekly market survey. Currently, 38.2% of the active listings in the Cape are priced at $450,000 and under, while 11.3% are listed at $1 million and above. Pending home sales have also been edging a bit higher, while remaining in a tight range, coming in with 617 homes under contract on Oct. 24 at prices ranging from $175,000 to $3.895 million. The second lowest-priced pending home sale in the Cape came in at $215,000 while the third lowest priced pending sale was at $250,000. The median pending sales price for single-family homes in the Cape was $399,900 and 65% of the homes under contract with a buyer were priced at $450,000 and under, while 3.6% were at $1 million and above.

By comparison, at the beginning of this month, on Oct. 3, there were 2,042 active listings for single-family homes in Cape Coral through the MLS, giving us a 9% increase in listings in just the last three weeks. On Oct. 3, the median list price was $511,225 and there were 610 pending home sales in the pipeline with a median pending sales price of $399,900. One year ago on Oct. 25, 2022, less than a month after Hurricane Ian hit, there were 1,276 active single-family home listings through the MLS in the Cape at a median list price of $499,694. As we have noted in the past, based on our weekly market surveys, the median list price hit its peak level of $610,000 on April 19, 2022. There were 571 pending home sales in the Cape one year ago, as our market was sorting out the storm damage.

Getting back to our current market, in the overall Cape Coral single-family home market, there were 413 closed home sales in September, which was up 7.3% from the 385 homes sold in September 2022, but down 11.6% from the 467 sales in August of this year. In the third quarter, there were 1,300 closed home sales in our overall market, which was 1.3% above the 1,283 homes sold in the third quarter of 2022, but 13.9% lower than the 1,510 sales in the second quarter of this year. In the first nine months of 2023, a total of 4,020 homes were sold overall in the Cape, for a decrease of 17.9% versus the 4,894 sales in the first nine months of 2022.

The median sales price in the overall Cape Coral single-family home market was $400,000 in September, down 2.4% from the $410,000 posted in September of 2022, but up a fraction versus the $399,900 in August of this year. In the third quarter, the median sales price averaged $403,300 per month, down 4.4% from the average of $421,667 per month in the third quarter of 2022, and 3.6% below the average of $418,333 per month in the second quarter of this year. In the first nine months of 2023, the Cape’s overall median home sales price averaged $411,100 per month, for a 3.9% decrease versus the average median sales price of $427,778 per month in the first nine months of 2022.

Indirect gulf access canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family indirect gulf access canal home segment (meaning homes with bridges in the canal system), there were 38 closed sales in September, which was 22.6% higher than the 31 closed sales in September 2022, and 100% more than the 19 sales in August of this year. In the third quarter, there were 88 closed sales in this segment, which was 14.6% lower than the 103 closed sales in the third quarter of 2022, and 42.5% below the 153 closed sales in the second quarter of this year. In the first nine months of this year, there were a total of 349 indirect gulf access canal homes sold in the Cape, or 28.9% less than the 491 sales in the first nine months of 2022.

The median sales price in the Cape’s indirect gulf access canal home segment came in at $765,000 in September, up 2.7% from the $745,000 posted in September 2022, but it was 13.2% below the $881,000 in August of this year. In the third quarter, the median sales price in this segment averaged $782,000 per month, or 2% above the average of $766,667 per month in the third quarter of 2022, but it was 2.5% below the average of $801,667 per month in the second quarter of this year. In the first nine months of this year, the median sales price averaged $783,722 per month in this segment, or 1.9% below the average median sales price of $798,894 per month in the first nine months of 2022.

Direct sailboat access canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family direct sailboat access canal home segment (meaning no bridges in the canals to get out to open water), there were 26 closed sales in September. This was 10.3% lower than the 29 sales in both September 2022, and in August of this year. In the third quarter, there were 82 closed sales in this segment, which was 2.4% below the 84 sales in the third quarter of 2022, and 22.6% lower than the 106 sales in the second quarter of this year. In the first nine months of this year, there were a total of 300 direct sailboat access canal homes sold in the Cape, or 29.4% less than the 425 sales in the first nine months of 2022.

The median sales price in the Cape’s direct sailboat access canal home segment came in at $805,000 in September, down 4.2% from $840,000 in September of 2022, but up 7.3 % versus $750,000 in August of this year. In the third quarter, the median sales price in this segment averaged $785,000 per month, down 4.7% from the average of $823,542 per month in the third quarter of 2022, but 1.8% above the average of $770,990 per month in the second quarter of this year. In the first nine months of this year, the median sales price averaged $762,830 per month in this segment, down 13.7% versus the average median sales price of $884,281 per month in the first nine months of 2022.

Due to space limitations, we will have the closed sales and median sales price data for the Cape Coral freshwater canal and lake home segment, along with the dry lot home segment in our column next week.

The sales data for this article was obtained from the Florida Realtors Multiple Listing Service Matrix for Lee County, FL, as of October 23, 2023, unless otherwise noted. It was compiled by Bob and Geri Quinn and it includes information specifically for Cape Coral single-family homes, and does not include condominiums, short sales, or foreclosures. The data and statistics are believed to be reliable, however, they could be updated and revised periodically, and are subject to change without notice. The Quinns are a husband and wife real estate team with the RE/MAX Realty Team office in Cape Coral. They have lived in Cape Coral for over 44-years. Geri has been a full-time Realtor since 2005, and Bob joined with Geri as a full-time Realtor in 2014. Their real estate practice is mainly focused on Cape Coral residential property and vacant lots.

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