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Cape’s mid-year supply of unsold homes moves lower

By BOB and GERI QUINN - Homing In | Jul 30, 2020

Before we get into this week’s topic about the Cape’s monthly levels of unsold single-family home supply, we need to finish up last week’s topic with the closed sales and median sales price numbers for our dry lot home segment. Also, the large pipeline of pending home sales we have noted recently has us on pace for a record number of July closed home sales. 

In the Cape Coral single-family dry lot (non-canal) home segment, there were 320 closed sales in June, or just a bit above the 319 sales in June 2019, and up 27.49 percent from the 251 sales in May of this year. In the second quarter, there were a total of 851 closed home sales in this segment, or 17.7 percent below the total of 1,034 sales in the second quarter of 2019, but up 3.78 percent from the 820 sales in the first quarter of this year. In the first six months of 2020, there have been a total of 1,671 closed dry lot home sales in the Cape, which was 5.33 percent below the 1,765 closed sales over the first half of 2019.

The median sales price in the Cape’s single-family dry lot home segment was $228,013 in June, or 6.05 percent higher than the $215,000 posted in June 2019, and 1.34 percent above the $225,000 in May of this year. In the second quarter of 2020, the median sales price averaged $226,503 per month in this segment, or 3.9 percent higher than the average of $218,000 per month in the second quarter of 2019, and 1.02 percent above the average of $224,218 per month in the first quarter of this year. In the first six months of 2020, the median sales price for dry lot homes in the Cape averaged $225,360 per month, which was 3.46 percent above the average of $217,817 per month over the first half of 2019.

As we move into this week’s main topic, the primary takeaway is that there was a decline in unsold supply levels from the first quarter of this year to the second quarter, and from May to June. There was also a drop off in the average monthly levels of unsold supply in the first half of this year, compared to the first six months of 2019. In normal times, we would expect this decreased supply to make it even more difficult for buyers to find the right home at the right price. But abnormal COVID-19 travel conditions and quarantines may eventually slow down this wave of recent buyer activity and offset some of these tight supply issues.   

In the overall Cape Coral single-family home market, the monthly supply of unsold homes in June came in at 5 months, which was even with the 5 months of supply in June 2019, but down 16.67 percent from the 6 months of supply in May this year. In the second quarter, the level of unsold supply in the Cape has averaged 5.33 months, which was even with the average of 5.33 months in the second quarter of 2019, but down 20.09 percent from the average of 6.67 months of supply in the first quarter of this year. In the first six months of 2020, the supply of unsold homes in the Cape has averaged 6 months, or 16.32 percent less than the average of 7.17 months over the first half of 2019. Based on the lower supply in the last four months, averaging less than 6 months, the overall single-family home market is in a lower inventory seller’s market, most heavily influenced by the low supply of dry lot homes.  

Gulf access canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family gulf access canal home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes for June came in at 7 months, which was 16.67 percent higher than the 6 months of supply in June 2019, but 12.5 percent below the 8 months of supply in May of this year. In the second quarter, the level of unsold supply in this segment averaged 7.33 months, which was up 4.71 percent versus the average supply of 7 months in the second quarter of 2019, but 15.46 percent lower than the average of 8.67 months of supply in the first quarter of this year. In the first six months of 2020, the supply of unsold gulf access canal homes in the Cape has averaged 8 months, or 17.27 percent less than the average of 9.67 months over the first half of 2019. This segment is currently in a neutral market range. 

Sailboat access canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family sailboat access canal home segment, which is a subgroup of gulf access homes, the monthly supply of unsold homes for June came in at 7 months, which was 16.67 percent higher than the 6 months of supply in June 2019, but 22.22 percent below the 9 months of supply in May of this year. In the second quarter, the level of unsold supply in this segment averaged 7.67 months, which was down 4.13 percent versus the average supply of 8 months in both the second quarter of 2019, and in the first quarter of this year. In the first six months of 2020, the supply of unsold sailboat access canal homes in the Cape has averaged 7.83 months, or 20.35 percent less than the average of 9.83 months over the first half of 2019. This segment is also currently in a neutral market range. 

Freshwater canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family freshwater canal home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes for June came in at 5 months, which was even with the 5 months of supply in June 2019, but 50 percent below the 10 months of supply in May of this year. In the second quarter, the level of unsold supply in this segment averaged 6.33 months, which was up 11.64 percent versus the average supply of 5.67 months in the second quarter of 2019, but 13.64 percent lower than the average of 7.33 months of supply in the first quarter of this year. In the first six months of 2020, the supply of unsold freshwater canal homes in the Cape has averaged 6.83 months, or 12.77 percent less than the average of 7.83 months over the first half of 2019. This segment currently shows itself to be in a neutral market, but this is because of the spike higher in inventory during May due to the plunge down to only 28 closed home sales that month from the COVID-19 shutdowns. In light of this abnormal COVID-19 spike, this segment is in more of a “feels like,” lower inventory seller’s market. 

Dry lot homes

In the Cape Coral single-family dry lot home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes for June came in at 4 months, which was 20 percent lower than the 5 months of supply in both June 2019, and in May of this year. In the second quarter, the level of unsold supply in this segment averaged 4.67 months, which was down 12.38 percent versus the average supply of 5.33 months in the second quarter of 2019, and 17.64 percent lower than the average of 5.67 months of supply in the first quarter of this year. In the first six months of 2020, the supply of unsold dry lot homes in the Cape has averaged 5.17 months, or 22.49 percent less than the average of 6.67 months over the first half of 2019. This segment is firmly positioned in a seller’s market with substantially less than 6 months of supply. 

(The sales data for this article was obtained from the Florida Realtors Multiple Listing Service Matrix for Lee County, Fla., as of July 18, 2020. It was compiled by Bob and Geri Quinn and it includes information specifically for Cape Coral single-family homes, and does not include condominiums, short sales or foreclosures. The data and statistics are believed to be reliable, however, they could be updated and revised periodically, and are subject to change without notice. The Quinns are a husband and wife real estate team with the RE/MAX Realty Team office in Cape Coral. They have lived in Cape Coral for over 40 years. Geri has been a full-time Realtor since 2005, and Bob joined Geri as a full-time Realtor in 2014. Their real estate practice is mainly focused on Cape Coral residential property and vacant lots.)

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