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What we learned from Hurricane Ian: ‘Paralleling storms’ can be deadly — and unpredictable

By CJ HADDAD / cjhaddad@breezenewspapers.com - | May 31, 2023

FILE PHOTO

Hurricane Ian arrived in Cape Coral last September as a massive Category 4 storm that wrought devastation and damage throughout the city. Impacts are still being felt throughout the community, and city leaders are taking lessons learned and implementing them for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 

One thing is clear: It can, and most likely will, happen again. It’s just a matter of when. 

“We have a hurricane problem,” said National Weather Service of Tampa Bay Area Meteorologist Daniel Noah. “We’ve had six major hurricanes strike the Gulf Coast in the last five years. Something’s going on — and we don’t quite know what — but we can prepare for it.”

Ian ranked as the fourth strongest landfall storm in U.S. history with maximum winds of 150 mph during impact, and was a Category 5 storm before it reached land. It also ranks as the third costliest behind Katrina and Harvey, totaling nearly $113 billion in damage. Many died from storm surge (as high as 15 feet in Fort Myers Beach, and 9 feet in Cape Coral), and other from river and overland flooding. Noah said storm surge predictions for Ian came in lower than what actually occurred.  In total, 149 Floridians lost their lives in the storm, including 72 in Lee County. 

It was the older population that saw the highest number of fatalities, which is something officials are keeping in mind as the next season approaches. 

Noah said there were communication challenges with Hurricane Ian. 

“The small track change when it left Cuba meant it could have hit Cedar Key, rather than Cayo Costa,” he said. “Anytime we have a paralleling storm, we’re going to have to warn the entire coast. The entire coast should evacuate, and only a small portion of that coast is going to be impacted. The thing is we can’t tell you which part. These paralleling storms; we don’t like those storms.”

Noah said more accurate models via computer simulations, or “spaghetti charts” can still be all over the place.

“A little change in the track makes a huge difference on who gets the impact, and (emergency and city staff) have to make the decision, which is really hard to do,” Noah said. “It’ not a yes or no decision, it’s based on uncertainty. So we communicate the uncertainty.” 

When it comes to flooding, Noah said in Southwest Florida, the Peace River and Horse Creek jumped more than 10 feet in half of a day. And yes, those levels can affect all surrounding areas in terms of bringing supplies to certain areas.

“We saw roads washed out… and it can last for weeks and impact your recovery,” Noah said. 

Fire Chief and Emergency Management Director Ryan Lamb said he was in constant contact with Noah’s team before and throughout the storm. 

Lamb said Cape Coral is approaching the long-term recovery phase after the immediate and short-term response in the days after Ian. They are working with a multitude of federal, state, and local partners to execute the process. 

“We’re years-long in recovery,” Lamb said. 

Lamb said the city embraces the “continuous improvement” model. 

“We always look at every incident and do an after-action report, which we’re currently engaged in that process, and look at ways to improve,” he said. 

In terms of communications, city spokesperson Melissa Mickey said the loss of electricity, cell phone service, and Wi-Fi presented challenges that were not germane to just Cape Coral.  

“Post-storm, our communications team did think outside the box and did the best we could with what was available to us,” Mickey said. “I was able to connect with communications professionals from other municipalities nearby. We also participated in Joint Information Center Meetings.”

The city created a specialized web page with daily updates, held press conferences via social media, created talking points for leadership staff, sent out daily news releases, and created video messages from subject matter experts. Informational flyers were created and updated daily to be distributed to the fire and police stations, along with city hall, and points of distribution for food and water. Radio stations were also key in spreading important information, as updates from the city were broadcast over several stations in days following the storm. 

Mickey said some challenges they faced were that not all residents knew about the flyers, or could not gain access to city messages via radio. The city will be increasing awareness on where and how to find information should a storm occur this year. 

Mickey said there were delay issues with instant, or “push” notifications regarding city updates. “It had an approval process that took two or three days, and sometimes the message would be old,” Mickey said. “Unfortunately during the storm, the AlertLee messaging wasn’t that useful to us. By November, there was (an update) in place, and we now have much faster messaging.” 

Communication with City Council also was an issue during and after Ian, Mickey said, noting that this year there will be a liaison specific to council members to connect with each individual. 

Lamb noted his office is working with county and state agencies to bridge the gap of information and requests moving up the ladder to get a more timely and efficient response for residents in Cape Coral. 

Some tweaks have been made to the city’s Emergency Operation Plan following Ian. 

“There’s a long list of things that we want memorialize and document that went well, and things that we to continue to improve on and strengthen in some areas,” Lamb said.

Lamb said the city had success with a “hub and spoke” model with different command points in the north, central, and south of the city. They are reviewing all positions activated in the EOC to see what worked well, could work virtually, or areas where gaps were identified where additional personnel are needed. Lamb said the city is working on job aides, so in the event someone retires or promotes to another position, the individual stepping in has a “cheat-sheet” or direct access to the experience of the outgoing employee.