Homing In: Cape’s third quarter home sales plunge before Ian hits

From a historical perspective, the number of closed Cape Coral home sales are typically much lower in the third quarter of the year compared to the second quarter when sales usually reach their peak levels. At least that was the case until the COVID abnormalities changed our market patterns in 2020 and 2021. So It would be easy to conclude that the plunge in closed sales this September and in the third quarter were simply a sign our market had finally returned to normal. But we are afraid it is the result of something much more sinister as the Federal Reserve tries to tackle runaway inflation by taking away their “easy money” punchbowl, in their attempt to bring the housing market down to stall speed via sharply higher interest rates. This “Great Unwind” is likely to cut even deeper into the housing market with another large rate hike on tap from the Fed on Nov. 2.
The impact from Hurricane Ian will be felt in the sales numbers for October and beyond. A quick look at the Ian-based market from Sept. 28 through Oct. 24 shows there have been 124 closed sales finalized in the Cape, with another 162 homes going under contract as pending sales. So well below normal numbers. During this time frame, 168 homes have come on the market as new listings giving us a total of 1,276 active listings, all while 248 sellers have withdrawn their listings and 92 others were terminated, with another 87 listings expiring. The median list price continued to drop, coming in at $499,694 on Oct. 25.
In the overall Cape Coral single-family home market, there were 379 closed home sales in September, which was down 33.7 percent from the 572 homes sold in September 2021, and down 9.1 percent from the 417 sales in August of this year. In the third quarter, there were 1,269 closed sales, which was 24 percent below the 1,670 homes sold in the third quarter of 2021, and 31.6 percent lower than the 1,854 sales in the second quarter of this year. In the first nine months of 2022, a total of 4,865 homes were sold overall in the Cape, for a decrease of 8.9 percent versus the 5,342 sales in the first nine months of 2021.
The median sales price in the overall Cape Coral single-family home market was $410,000 in September, up 11.9 percent from the $366,250 posted in September 2021, but 4.7 percent below the $430,000 in August of this year. In the third quarter, the median sales price averaged $421,633 per month, up 17.8 percent from the average of $358,050 per month in the third quarter of 2021, but down 7.7 percent from the average of $456,667 per month in the second quarter of this year. In the first nine months of 2022, the Cape’s overall median home sales price averaged $428,156 per month, for a 26.3 percent increase versus the average median sales price of $338,928 per month in the first nine months of 2021.
Indirect gulf access canal homes
In the Cape Coral single-family indirect gulf access canal home segment (meaning homes with bridges in the canal system), there were 31 closed sales in September, which was 41.5 percent lower than the 53 closed sales in September 2021, and 18.4 percent below the 38 sales in August of this year. In the third quarter, there were 103 closed sales in this segment, which was 38.7 percent lower than the 168 closed sales in the third quarter of 2021, and 51.4 percent below the 212 closed sales in the second quarter of this year. In the first nine months of this year, there were a total of 489 indirect gulf access canal homes sold in the Cape, or 22.4 percent less than the 630 sales in the first nine months of 2021.
The median sales price in the Cape’s indirect gulf access canal home segment came in at $745,000 in September, up 12 percent from the $665,000 posted in September 2021, but 6.9 percent below the $800,000 in August of this year. In the third quarter, the median sales price in this segment averaged $766,667 per month, or 14.3 percent above the average of $670,667 per month in the third quarter of 2021, but 7 percent below the average of $824,200 per month in the second quarter of this year. In the first nine months of this year, the median sales price averaged $799,167 per month in this segment, or 28.8 percent above the average median sales price of $620,667 per month in the first nine months of 2021.
Direct sailboat access canal homes
In the Cape Coral single-family direct sailboat access canal home segment (meaning no bridges in the canals to get out to open water), there were 29 closed sales in September, which was 49.1 percent lower than the 57 sales in September 2021, and even with the 29 sales in August of this year. In the third quarter, there were 84 closed sales in this segment, which was 44.4 percent below the 151 sales in the third quarter of 2021, and 45.8 percent lower than the 155 sales in the second quarter of this year. In the first nine months of this year, there were a total of 424 direct sailboat access canal homes sold in the Cape, or 27.1 percent less than the 582 sales in the first nine months of 2021.
The median sales price in the Cape’s direct sailboat access canal home segment came in at $840,000 in September, up 15.9 percent from $725,000 in September 2021, but down 4 percent versus $875,000 in August of this year. In the third quarter, the median sales price in this segment averaged $823,542 per month, up 14.4 percent from the average of $720,125 per month in the third quarter of 2021, but 14.4 percent below the average of $961,633 per month in the second quarter of this year. In the first nine months of this year, the median sales price averaged $885,669 per month in this segment, up 31.9 percent versus the average median sales price of $671,658 per month in the first nine months of 2021.
Freshwater canal and lake homes
In the Cape’s single-family freshwater canal and lake home segment, which includes landlocked canals and lakes with no boating access to open water, there were 41 closed sales in September, which was 42.3 percent below the 71 sales in September 2021, but 7.9 percent above the 38 sales in August of this year. In the third quarter, there were 124 closed sales in this segment, or 33.33 percent less than the 186 sales in the third quarter of 2021, and 38.9 percent lower than the 203 sales in the second quarter of this year. In the first nine months of this year, there were a total of 509 freshwater canal and lake homes sold in the Cape, or 13 percent less than the 585 sales in the first nine months of 2021.
The median sales price in the Cape Coral single-family freshwater canal and lake home segment came in at $550,000 in September, which was up 29.4 percent from the $425,000 posted in September 2021, but 1.8 percent below the $559,950 in August of this year. In the third quarter, the median sales price in this segment averaged $541,650 per month, or 28.9 percent higher than the average of $420,300 per month in the third quarter of 2021, but 3.1 percent below the average median sales price of $559,150 per month in the second quarter of this year. In the first nine months of 2022, the median sales price averaged $529,372 per month in this segment, which was 33.6 percent more than the average median sales price of $396,249 per month in the first nine months of 2021.
We will have the closed sales and median sales price data for the Cape Coral dry lot home segment in our column next week.
The sales data for this article was obtained from the Florida Realtors Multiple Listing Service Matrix for Lee County, FL, as of Oct. 22, 2022, unless otherwise noted. It was compiled by Bob and Geri Quinn and it includes information specifically for Cape Coral single family homes, and does not include condominiums, short sales or foreclosures. The data and statistics are believed to be reliable, however, they could be updated and revised periodically, and are subject to change without notice. The Quinns are a husband and wife real estate team with the RE/MAX Realty Team office in Cape Coral. They have lived in Cape Coral for over 43 years. Geri has been a full-time Realtor since 2005, and Bob joined with Geri as a full-time Realtor in 2014. Their real estate practice is mainly focused on Cape Coral residential property and vacant lots.