Geri and Bob Quinn

The main takeaway with the monthly unsold supply numbers for the Cape Coral condo market is that our inventory remains at abnormally low levels by every historical standard, leaving us deeply entrenched in a seller’s market. This lack of condo supply continues to put competitive pressure on buyers, creating a short squeeze that leaves most buyers coming away empty handed.

As of Aug. 11, there were only 53 active condo listings in the Cape through the Multiple Listing Service at asking prices ranging from $105,000 to $1.3 million. There are currently 90 condo units (92 including distressed sales) under contract with buyers as pending sales. This compares to back on May 11, when there were 50 active condo listings from $102,000 to $800,000 and 148 pending sales in the pipeline. To help illustrate our current tight supply of condos available for sale, on Jan. 31 of this year there were 149 active condo listings in the Cape versus today’s total of 53 condo listings.

Before we get into the condo inventory numbers for the first half of this year, we would like to touch on a recent report from CoreLogic, a well-known real estate data and analytics company. In this report, CoreLogic listed the top 15 metro areas with the highest “out” migration and the top 15 metro areas with the highest “in” migration during 2020. These lists are largely made up of high cost, high tax and high home price areas versus lower cost, lower tax and lower home price areas. Warmer weather and an abundance of available outdoor activities were also a driving force behind a majority of these moves to the more desirable “in” migration areas, which is one reason why seven of the top 15 inbound locations were in Florida. The Lakeland-Winter Haven area ranked second on the “in” migration list, while the Cape Coral-Fort Myers area came in at number 12, and the North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton area at number 14. Of note, two Florida metro areas landed on the “out” migration list, with Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach at number 6 for people moving away, and the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford area ranked at number 11 on this list.

The top spot for outbound migration was the New York City-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA metro areas, where it was noted that for each incoming home purchase application to New York, there were almost six potential homebuyers moving out of New York in 2020. The general Boston area ranked number 8 on the outbound list, with the Chicago area at number 9, and the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI areas were number 15 on this list.

As far as our area is concerned, we are still seeing a solid influx of out-of-town buyers coming to us for information about our real estate market via the Internet, as they begin their search for homes and condos in Cape Coral. We would estimate that about one-third of these potential buyers are expressing plans to relocate to Florida within the next six months and Cape Coral is at the top of their list. Some of these buyers are in the process of selling their northern homes and they are trying to coordinate buying something here ahead of their closing so they can make a seamless transition. But due to the tight supply and rising prices, most are struggling to find the type of home they want within their stated price range. As with most seasoned Realtors, we have more qualified buyers in our pipeline looking for a match than homeowners interested in listing their homes for sale.

In the overall Cape Coral condo market, the monthly supply of unsold condos came in at 2 months in June, which was 75 percent lower than the 8 months of unsold supply in June 2020, and even with the 2 months of supply in May of this year. In the second quarter of this year, the overall unsold supply of condos in the Cape averaged 2 months, which was 77 percent below the average of 8.67 months of supply in the second quarter of 2020, and 45.5 percent lower than the average of 3.67 months of unsold supply in the first quarter of this year. In the first half of this year, the unsold supply of condos in the overall Cape market averaged 2.83 months, or 62.3 percent less than the average of 7.5 months of supply in the first six months of 2020.

Gulf access canal condos

In the Cape Coral gulf access canal condo segment, which includes all saltwater canal condominiums, the monthly supply of unsold condos came in at 2 months in June, which was 71.4 percent lower than the 7 months of unsold supply in June 2020, and even with the 2 months of supply in May of this year. In the second quarter of this year, the unsold supply of condos in this segment averaged 2 months, which was 76 percent less than the average of 8.33 months of supply in the second quarter of 2020, and 39.9 percent lower than the average of 3.33 months of unsold supply in the first quarter of this year. In the first half of this year, the unsold supply of all saltwater canal condos averaged 2.67 months, or 64.4 percent less than the average of 7.5 months of supply in the first six months of 2020.

Direct sailboat access canal condos

In the Cape Coral direct sailboat access canal condo segment, which is a subgroup of gulf access condos and includes canals with no bridges for boaters to go under to reach open water, the monthly supply of unsold condos came in at only 1 month in June. This was 88.9 percent lower than the 9 months of unsold supply in June 2020, and 50 percent below the 2 months of supply in May of this year. In the second quarter of this year, the unsold supply of condos in this segment averaged 1.67 months, which was 84.8 percent below the average of 11 months of supply in the second quarter of 2020, and 49.8 percent lower than the average of 3.33 months of unsold supply in the first quarter of this year. In the first half of this year, the unsold supply of direct sailboat access canal condos averaged 2.5 months, or 72.7 percent less than the average of 9.16 months of supply in the first six months of 2020.

Dry lot condos

In the Cape Coral dry lot (non-canal) condo segment, the monthly supply of unsold condos came in at 2 months in June, which was 71.4 percent lower than the 7 months of unsold supply in June 2020, and even with the 2 months of unsold supply in May of this year. In the second quarter of this year, the unsold supply of condos in this segment averaged 2 months, which was 72.7 percent lower than the average of 7.33 months of supply in the second quarter of 2020, and 57.2 percent below the average of 4.67 months of unsold supply in the first quarter of this year. In the first half of this year, the unsold supply of dry lot condos averaged 3.33 months, or 51.2 percent less than the average of 6.83 months of supply in the first six months of 2020.

The sales data for this article was obtained from the Florida Realtors Multiple Listing Service Matrix for Lee County, Fla., as of Aug. 1, 2021, unless otherwise noted. It was compiled by Bob and Geri Quinn and it includes information specifically for Cape Coral condominiums, townhouses and villas, and it does not include any single-family homes, short sales or foreclosures. The data and statistics are believed to be reliable, however, they could be updated and revised periodically, and are subject to change without notice. The Quinns are a husband and wife real estate team with the RE/MAX Realty Team office in Cape Coral. They have lived in Cape Coral for over 41 years. Geri has been a full-time Realtor since 2005, and Bob joined Geri as a full-time Realtor in 2014. Their real estate practice is mainly focused on Cape Coral residential property and vacant lots.