Geri and Bob Quinn

Last year at this time, we were discussing the lower than normal inventory of homes listed for sale in Cape Coral at the tail end of 2019, and how barring any unexpected economic events, things looked like they were setting up for another huge year in our real estate market during 2020. Then the big surprise hit with full force in mid-March, and as the number of closed home sales eventually plummeted to their COVID-19 lows in the month of May, the likelihood of another record year for home sales was suddenly cast into doubt. But throughout the COVID shutdowns we continued to see a significant and growing amount of interest in our market from out-of-state buyers via the Internet. Once Florida was reopened for business, this pent-up buyer demand turned into the real thing in the form of a record setting second half of the year in Cape Coral home sales, as 2020 raced its way into the record books by posting the highest number of closed home sales in a single year, ever.  

So as we peer through the front door window of the New Year, what we thought was a low inventory of homes listed for sale in the Cape at the tail end of 2019, turned into a series of lower lows in the inventory levels throughout the year in 2020. As we have been noting in this column on a regular basis, the combination of a tightening supply of homes listed for sale, strong buyer demand and near record low mortgage interest rates, along with an influx of people wanting to escape high tax states with what many have viewed as overly severe lockdowns, have all helped fuel a booming seller’s market in Southwest Florida.

The good news right now is that the buyer demand in our market remains strong, but with a record low level of homes listed for sale in Cape Coral now compared to a year ago, we find our market sitting in a more precarious position at the beginning of 2021. Besides the existing wildcards with the virus, vaccinations and the economy, a big question in our real estate market in 2021 seems to be, will we have enough supply to meet the demand? Having what is for us an abnormally low supply of homes on the market can be a good problem, until it isn’t.

As a case in point, as of Jan. 26, there were 486 active listings in the Multiple Listing Service for single-family homes in Cape Coral at list prices ranging from $164,900 to $3,995,000. If we include foreclosures, there were 489 active listings with the lowest priced home at $132,000. By comparison, back on Nov. 17, 2020, there were 664 active listings on the market, so in the past two months active home listings in the Cape have declined by 26.81 percent. The unsold home supply numbers for 2020 are shown below.  

In the overall Cape Coral single-family home market, the monthly level of unsold supply came in at 3 months in December, which was 40 percent lower than the 5 months of unsold supply in December 2019, and 25 percent below the 4 months of supply in November 2020. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the monthly average level of unsold supply was 3.33 months, or 41.27 percent less than the average of 5.67 months of supply in the fourth quarter of 2019, and even with the average of 3.33 months of unsold supply in the third quarter of 2020. This was the lowest level of fourth quarter inventory in the Cape’s overall single-family home market since it averaged 4.33 months back in the fourth quarter of 2012. In addition, the average level of unsold supply in the third and fourth quarters of 2020, at only 3.33 months each, ranks next in line behind the all-time record average quarterly low of only 3 months of unsold supply in both the second quarters of 2012 and 2013. For the year, the monthly unsold supply level averaged 4.66 months in 2020, or 25.44 percent less than the average of 6.25 months of unsold supply in all of 2019. 

Gulf access canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family gulf access canal home segment, the monthly level of unsold supply came in at 3 months in December, which was 50 percent lower than the 6 months of unsold supply in December 2019, and even with the 3 months of unsold supply in November 2020. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the monthly average of unsold supply in this segment was also 3 months, which was 60.89 percent below the average of 7.67 months of supply in the fourth quarter of 2019, and 25 percent less than the 4 months of unsold supply in the third quarter of 2020. For the year, the monthly unsold supply level for gulf access homes averaged 5.75 months in 2020, which was 32.98 percent less than the average of 8.58 months of unsold supply in all of 2019. 

Sailboat access canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family sailboat access canal home segment, which is a subgroup of gulf access homes, the monthly level of unsold supply came in at 3 months in December, or 62.5 percent lower than the 8 months of unsold supply in December 2019, and 25 percent below the 4 months of supply in November 2020. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the monthly average of unsold supply in this segment was 3.67 months, or 57.67 percent below the average of 8.67 months of supply in the fourth quarter of 2019, and 15.24 percent less than the average of 4.33 months of unsold supply in the third quarter of 2020. For the year, the monthly unsold supply level for sailboat access homes averaged 5.92 months in 2020, which was 34.8 percent below the average of 9.08 months of unsold supply in all of 2019. 

Freshwater canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family freshwater canal home segment, the monthly level of unsold supply came in at 2 months in December, which was 60 percent lower than the 5 months of unsold supply in December 2019, and 33.33 percent below the 3 months of supply in November 2020. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the monthly average of unsold supply in this segment was 2.67 months, which was 61.86 percent below the average of 7 months of supply in the fourth quarter of 2019, and 11 percent less than the 3 months of unsold supply in the third quarter of 2020. For the year, the monthly unsold supply level for freshwater canal homes averaged 4.83 months in 2020, which was 28.44 percent lower than the average of 6.75 months of unsold supply in all of 2019. 

Dry lot homes

In the Cape Coral single-family dry lot (non-canal) home segment, the monthly level of unsold supply came in at 3 months in December, which was 40 percent lower than the 5 months of unsold supply in December 2019, and 25 percent below the 4 months of supply in November 2020. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the monthly average of unsold supply in this segment was 3.33 months, which was 33.4 percent below the average of 5 months of supply in the fourth quarter of 2019, and even with the 3.33 months of unsold supply in the third quarter of 2020. For the year, the monthly unsold supply level for dry lot homes averaged 4.25 months in 2020, which was 27.1 percent below the average of 5.83 months of unsold supply in all of 2019. 

The sales data for this article was obtained from the Florida Realtors Multiple Listing Service Matrix for Lee County, Fla., as of Jan. 18, 2021, unless otherwise noted. It was compiled by Bob and Geri Quinn and it includes information specifically for Cape Coral single-family homes, and does not include condominiums, short sales, or foreclosures. The data and statistics are believed to be reliable, however, they could be updated and revised periodically, and are subject to change without notice. The Quinns are a husband and wife real estate team with the RE/MAX Realty Team office in Cape Coral. They have lived in Cape Coral for over 41 years. Geri has been a full-time Realtor since 2005, and Bob joined with Geri as a full-time Realtor in 2014. Their real estate practice is mainly focused on Cape Coral residential property and vacant lots.