Geri and Bob Quinn

As we prepare to begin “Year 2 A.C.” (as in, “After COVID”), in a period which we have been describing as the “new abnormal,” there are a lot of potential wildcards facing the economy and the local real estate market, along with life in general. As with many families from across the globe, we had an elderly relative pass away in total isolation during 2020, in a northern state that was locked down due to COVID-19. She did not have COVID, but due to other health issues she spent the last four months of her life trapped inside the healthcare system with no visitors allowed, ultimately passing away alone with no family allowed by her side. 

With this new abnormal firmly entrenched in our lives, one of the big questions about the New Year in our local real estate market revolves around the monthly supply of unsold homes, a.k.a., the inventory, and the annual ritual of the “seasonal sellers.” The seasonal sellers are a group of current homeowners in Southwest Florida who view the influx of winter visitors descending on our area in droves during January through March, as a golden opportunity to put their homes up for sale. With a record low supply of homes on the market heading into 2021, we are left hoping the seasonal sellers arrive again this January, but we are not as sure about this annual rite of passage in 2021, as we have been in years past. 

One of the dilemmas facing a lot of sellers is that if they price their home properly to the market it is likely to go under contract with a buyer in a matter of days or weeks, with the pending sale closing in roughly 30 days. This means the seller will need to find another home to buy, close on it, and move on very short notice in a very tight market, creating a very high stress situation for most people. This is one reason why we may not see the usual spike in the number of seasonal sellers this January, and why the inventory may shrink even further, as buyer demand in the Cape looks like it will remain strong at the beginning of 2021.

To help illustrate the current shortage of inventory for single-family homes in the Cape, let’s take a look back at the number of new listings that have come onto the market over the past year. In the first quarter of this year, a total of 1,958 new listings came on the market and were added to the existing supply at that time. But it was 16.22 percent less than the 2,337 new listings added to the market in the first quarter of 2019. In the second quarter of this year, a total of 1,481 new listings were added to the inventory, which was 21.1 percent below the 1,877 new listings added during the second quarter of 2019, with the new listings in April down 38.34 percent versus April 2019, as potential sellers stepped back from the market due to COVID-19. The number of new single-family home listings recovered in the third quarter with a total of 1,918 additional homes coming on the market, which was up 23.98 percent versus the 1,547 new listings from the third quarter of last year. So through November, the total number of new listings that have come onto the market in the Cape is running 6.8 percent below last year, while the number of closed sales in 2020 are setting new records, thus creating an increasing shortage of homes available for buyers to choose from.

In the overall Cape Coral single-family home market, the monthly supply of unsold homes for November came in at 4 months, which was 33.33 percent lower than the 6 months of supply in November 2019, but up 33.33 percent from the 3 months of supply in October of this year. In the first 11 months of 2020, the level of unsold single-family home supply in the Cape has averaged 4.82 months, or 24.21 percent less than the average supply of 6.36 months over the first 11 months of 2019. This has our overall single-family home market  in Cape Coral positioned firmly in a lower inventory seller’s market. 

Gulf access canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family gulf access canal home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes for November came in at 3 months, or 62.5 percent lower than the 8 months of supply in November 2019, and flat with 3 months of supply posted in October of this year. In the first 11 months of 2020, the level of unsold supply in this segment averaged 6 months, which was 31.97 percent lower than the average supply of 8.82 months over the first 11 months of last year. With the monthly unsold supply level in this segment averaging only 3.6 months between July and November, versus a monthly average of 8 months of supply in the first half of this year, this segment is currently in a seller’s market with record low levels of inventory.    

Sailboat access canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family sailboat access canal home segment, which is a subgroup of gulf access homes, the monthly supply of unsold homes for November came in at 4 months, which was 60 percent lower than the 10 months of supply in November 2019, and flat with the 4 months of supply in October of this year. In the first 11 months of 2020, the level of unsold supply in this segment averaged 6.18 months, which was 32.68 percent less than the average supply of 9.18 months over the first 11 months of last year. This segment is also  in a seller’s market, averaging only 4.2 months of inventory from July through November, after finishing the first half of this year with an average supply of 7.83 months. 

Freshwater canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family freshwater canal home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes for November came in at 3 months, which was 62.5 percent lower than the 8 months of supply in November 2019, and flat with the 3 months of supply in October of this year. In the first 11 months of 2020, the level of unsold supply in this segment averaged 5.09 months, which was down 26.34 percent versus the average supply of 6.91 months over the first 11 months of last year. This segment is currently positioned in a low inventory seller’s market, with an average monthly supply of only 3 months from July through November, versus an average of 6.83 months of supply over the first six months of this year.  

Dry lot homes

In the Cape Coral single-family dry lot (non-canal) home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes for November came in at 4 months, which was 20 percent lower than the 5 months of supply in November 2019, but 33.33 percent higher than the 3 months of supply in October of this year. In the first 11 months of 2020, the level of unsold supply in this segment averaged 4.36 months, which was 26.23 percent lower than the average supply of 5.91 months over the first 11 months of last year. This segment remains firmly in its typical seller’s market range with less than 6 months of inventory as the monthly level of unsold supply has averaged only 3.4 months from July through November, versus an average supply of 5.17 months in the first half of 2020.   

The sales data for this article was obtained from the Florida Realtors Multiple Listing Service Matrix for Lee County, Fla. as of Dec. 20, 2020, unless otherwise noted. It was compiled by Bob and Geri Quinn and it includes information specifically for Cape Coral single-family homes, and does not include condominiums, short sales or foreclosures. The data and statistics are believed to be reliable, however, they could be updated and revised periodically, and are subject to change without notice. The Quinns are a husband and wife real estate team with the RE/MAX Realty Team office in Cape Coral. They have lived in Cape Coral for over 41 years. Geri has been a full-time Realtor since 2005, and Bob joined Geri as a full-time Realtor in 2014. Their real estate practice is mainly focused on Cape Coral residential property and vacant lots.