One of the real estate market themes so far in 2020 has been that of a tighter than normal inventory of homes and condos listed for sale in Cape Coral. Having a lower supply of homes available for sale on the market is usually a good thing as long as enough homes are still being sold, which, despite a drop off in sales, has still been the case in our market. There are several ways to analyze the inventory of homes, in order to get a reading on the health of the market and to anticipate how it might change or support various market trends. Here are two methods we utilize.

Our first choice for tracking and analyzing the Cape’s housing inventory is to utilize the statistics for the monthly supply of homes and condos that are sitting on the market unsold. We take this information from the Multiple Listing Service every month and compile it for each of the primary property segments in our market. This data for the monthly supply of unsold homes and condos helps us determine if the specific segments of our market are in a lower inventory seller’s market, a higher inventory buyer’s market or a neutral market, all of which can provide us with additional insight on how to negotiate the purchase or sale of a property depending on if our client is the buyer or the seller.

Another method that we utilize to gain an additional perspective about our market is to analyze the data for the monthly number of active listings. For example, in the Cape’s condo market, the number of active listings totaled 334 this April and 340 in May. In comparing these numbers to last year, the active listings for April came in 23.57 percent below the 437 active listings recorded in April 2019, and the number for this May was 13.92 below the 395 active listings in May of last year. In the first quarter of this year, there was an average 372.33 active condo listings per month in the Cape, which was 16.27 percent lower than the average of 444.67 active listings per month in the first quarter of 2019. And through the end of May, active condo listings have averaged 358.2 per month, or 17.31 percent below the average of 433.2 per month over the first five months of 2019.

In looking at all of the data points for our market, including the number of sales per month, median sales prices, unsold supply, active listings, inquiries from potential buyers and more, it supports what we are seeing with a lot of out-of-town buyer interest in the Cape. But in many cases buyers seem to be struggling a bit to find “exactly” what they are looking for in their initially stated price ranges. This largely confirms what we are seeing with the lower monthly supply of unsold condos and homes, along with the decreased number of active listings. We are also finding that those buyers who are in a financial position to move up in price to “find the right home” are doing so, while those on a tighter budget are forced to continue looking, or accept some trade-offs in what they are willing to buy.

As an example, one internet buyer we have been working with was searching for a home from North Port to Cape Coral. At age 50, they had been planning to buy a second home in Florida sometime in the next 10 years, but they moved up their time frame to now in order to “have a place to escape to” from Michigan in the future because of the coronavirus lockdowns. They quickly realized they were going to need to increase their purchase price range to find what they wanted, and after we sent them preview videos of various homes, they ultimately settled on a new construction spec home in Babcock Ranch without setting foot in the home prior to going under contract.

Moving back to the numbers for both April and the first four months of this year, the monthly supply of unsold condos overall in the Cape came in at 7 months in April, which was an increase of 16.67 percent compared to the 6 months of supply in April 2019, and 40 percent higher than the 5 months of unsold supply in March of this year. However, in the first four months of 2020, the level of unsold supply in the overall Cape Coral condo market averaged 6.75 months, which was 20.59 percent below the average supply of 8.5 months over the first four months of 2019. This places our current overall condo market firmly in a neutral market, although the preliminary supply numbers for the month of May are looking like they will be spiking higher.

Gulf access canal condos

The monthly supply of unsold gulf access canal condos in the Cape came in at 7 months in April, which was an increase of 16.67 percent compared to the 6 months of supply in April 2019, and up 40 percent from the 5 months of unsold supply in March of this year. In the first four months of 2020, the level of unsold supply in this condo segment averaged 6.75 months, which was 37.21 percent below the average supply of 10.75 months over the first four months of 2019. This segment is currently in a neutral market, but the unsold inventory looks to be spiking higher in May.

Sailboat access canal condos

The monthly supply of unsold sailboat access canal condos in the Cape, which is a subgroup of gulf access condos, also came in at 7 months in April, for an increase of 16.67 percent compared to the 6 months of supply in April 2019, and 40 percent higher than the 5 months of unsold supply in March of this year. In the first four months of 2020, the level of unsold supply in this condo segment averaged 7.25 months, which was down 42 percent from the average supply of 12.5 months over the first four months of 2019. This currently places this segment in a slightly higher neutral market range, but the preliminary unsold supply numbers for the month of May indicate a sizable spike higher is on the way.

Dry lot condos

The monthly supply of unsold dry lot (non-canal) condos in the Cape came in at 8 months in April, which was an increase of 60 percent compared to the 5 months of supply in April 2019, and 33.33 percent higher than the 6 months of unsold supply in March of this year. In the first four months of 2020, the unsold supply in this segment averaged 7 months, or 12 percent higher versus the average of 6.25 months of unsold supply over the first four months of 2019. This places the Cape’s dry lot condo segment firmly in a neutral market, and it is the lone exception with a higher year-to-date level of supply, however, the preliminary unsold inventory numbers for May are looking a bit lower, which is a good thing.

(The sales data for this article was obtained from the Florida Realtors Multiple Listing Service Matrix for Lee County, Fla., as of June 7, 2020. It was compiled by Bob and Geri Quinn and it includes information specifically for Cape Coral condominiums, townhouses and villas, and it does not include any single-family homes, short sales or foreclosures, unless otherwise noted. The data and statistics are believed to be reliable, however, they could be updated and revised periodically, and are subject to change without notice. The Quinns are a husband and wife real estate team with the RE/MAX Realty Team office in Cape Coral. They have lived in Cape Coral for over 40 years. Geri has been a full-time Realtor since 2005, and Bob joined Geri as a full-time Realtor in 2014. Their real estate practice is mainly focused on Cape Coral residential property and vacant lots.)