There are several key takeaways from the April single-family home inventory numbers, and what we are seeing on the ground in the Cape Coral real estate market as we move towards the mid-year point of 2020. First, the inventory of Cape Coral homes available for sale in April came in substantially lower than they were at this time last year. A lower inventory is generally better for people looking to sell their homes than it is for people looking to buy a home, as this tighter supply means there are fewer homes available for buyers to choose from. This can create more competition between buyers and it is likely one of the main reasons we have seen the median sales prices for homes in the Cape remaining strong so far this year, despite the negative economic impacts of the recent virus-related shutdowns.

As we covered last week, the number of closed home sales were down in April compared to a year ago, but the decline was not as bad as one might have expected. However, the preliminary closed home sales numbers we are seeing for the month of May (as of June 3) are coming in worse than expected, in what we would term as “sharply lower” compared to the 574 sales posted in May 2019. They will also be well below the 431 sales from April of this year, even after adjustments are made for late reporting and corrections over the next several weeks. As we have noted in the past, the peak months for closed home sales in the Cape have historically been during the months of March through June, with the second quarter being the strongest quarter for sales. So the month of June may give us a better reading about the near-term economic fallout on our real estate market from the social distancing shutdowns.

For home sellers in our current market, even with a tighter inventory of homes listed for sale, the biggest “tell” about the likelihood that you have your home priced properly to the market is your level of showing activity. If you are receiving very sporadic or no showings with potential buyers, whether in-person or virtual, or if you are not having agents scheduling previews for out-of-town buyers, there is a very strong possibility that you are overpriced to the market. At the same time, homes that are priced reasonably to the market tend to get a fairly steady stream of showing appointments and agent previews, and they are often going under contract with buyers in a matter of days or weeks. This is especially true with homes priced from around $325,000 and under, which have the largest pool of potential buyers, and should attract a buyer in 30 days or less. Higher priced homes are likely to have fewer showings and may take longer to go under contract with a buyer, in large part because they make up a smaller percentage of home sales in the Cape, with a smaller pool of potential buyers. The April inventory numbers are shown below.

In the overall Cape Coral single-family home market, the monthly supply of unsold single-family homes for April came in at 5 months, which was 16.67 percent lower than the 6 months of supply in April 2019, and even with the 5 months of supply in March of this year. In the first four months of 2020, the level of unsold single-family home supply in the Cape has averaged 6.25 months, which was down 24.24 percent versus the average supply of 8.25 months over the first four months of last year, and down 7.41 percent from the average of 6.75 months of unsold supply in the first four months of 2018. This places the current overall single-family home market on the borderline between a seller’s and a neutral market.

Gulf access canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family gulf access canal home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes for April came in at 7 months, which was 12.5 percent lower than the 8 months of supply in April 2019, and even with the 7 months of supply in March of this year. In the first four months of 2020, the level of unsold supply for gulf access homes in the Cape averaged 8.25 months, which was down 26.67 percent versus the average supply of 11.25 months over the first four months of last year, and down 21.43 percent from the average of 10.5 months of supply in the first four months of 2018. This segment is in a neutral market.

Sailboat access canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family sailboat access canal home segment, which is a subgroup of gulf access homes, the monthly supply of unsold homes for April came in at 7 months, which was 30 percent lower than the 10 months of supply in April 2019, but even with the 7 months of supply in March of this year. In the first four months of 2020, the level of unsold supply for sailboat access homes in the Cape averaged 7.75 months, which was down 31.11 percent versus the average supply of 11.25 months over the first four months of last year, and down 20.51 percent from the average of 9.75 months of supply in the first four months of 2018. This segment is currently positioned firmly in a neutral market.

Freshwater canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family freshwater canal home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes for April came in at 4 months, which was 50 percent lower than the 8 months of supply in April 2019, but even with the 4 months of supply in March of this year. In the first four months of 2020, the level of unsold supply for freshwater canal homes in the Cape averaged 6.5 months, which was down 31.58 percent versus the average supply of 9.5 months over the first four months of last year, and down 3.7 percent from the average of 6.75 months of supply in the first four months of 2018. If we throw out the high inventory number in the month of January, this segment has clearly moved into a lower inventory seller’s market over the last three months.

Dry lot homes

In the Cape Coral single-family dry lot (non-canal) home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes for April came in at 5 months, which was 16.67 percent lower than the 6 months of supply in April 2019, but 25 percent above the 4 months of supply in March of this year. In the first four months of 2020, the level of unsold supply for dry lot homes in the Cape averaged 5.5 months, which was down 26.67 percent versus the average supply of 7.5 months over the first four months of last year, and down 8.33 percent from the average of 6 months of supply in the first four months of 2018. This segment is in a lower inventory seller’s market.

(The sales data for this article was obtained from the Florida Realtors Multiple Listing Service Matrix for Lee County, Fla., as of May 24, 2020. It was compiled by Bob and Geri Quinn and it includes information specifically for Cape Coral single-family homes, and does not include condominiums, short sales or foreclosures. The data and statistics are believed to be reliable, however, they could be updated and revised periodically, and are subject to change without notice. The Quinns are a husband and wife real estate team with the RE/MAX Realty Team office in Cape Coral. They have lived in Cape Coral for over 40 years. Geri has been a full-time Realtor since 2005, and Bob joined Geri as a full-time Realtor in 2014. Their real estate practice is mainly focused on Cape Coral residential property and vacant lots.)