Supply levels improve in gulf and sailboat canal homes
With the new year right around the corner, we will be watching for the seasonal patterns to emerge in the Cape Coral real estate market. For example, the monthly supply of unsold homes usually ramps higher in January and February, and then begins to decline going into March and April. Our peak months for closed home sales usually occurs sometime between the months of March and June. Remember, we are talking about the month that a sale closes, which means the home actually went under contract with a buyer as a pending sale some 30 to 60 days prior to closing. As we note below, we are seeing some positive year-end trends towards a lower supply of unsold gulf and sailboat access canal homes. We will be watching to see if this trend carries over into January, but for now, here is a snapshot of the November supply numbers, followed by the details for each segment of our market.
The monthly supply of unsold single-family homes in Cape Coral during November came in much lower compared to November of last year in our gulf access, sailboat access and dry lot home segments, as well as in our overall market. However, the opposite was true in the Cape’s freshwater canal home segment, where the inventory of unsold homes came in much higher than last year. Also of note, was that through Nov. 30, the average monthly level of unsold supply for gulf and sailboat access canal homes in 2019 were well below the levels recorded in the first 11 months of last year. These lower levels of supply are a big positive for gulf and sailboat access homes as we move deeper into our stronger seasonal months, and they are likely a direct result of the increased number of sales this year due to the improved water quality conditions.
Another positive in the market is that the dry lot home segment, which accounts for roughly 70 percent of the total number of homes sold in the Cape, remains the only portion of our market that is still in a lower inventory seller’s market. This means that someone trying to sell their dry lot home in the Cape may have some advantages over a buyer when it comes to negotiating the price and terms of the sale. However, this does not mean that a seller can simply name their price and expect to sell their home, as this seller’s market advantage is largely counterbalanced by the fact that home buyers are remaining very rational in what they will pay for a home. Price a home reasonably to the market, and it sells quickly. Overprice a home to the market, and it sits there unsold.
In the overall Cape Coral single-family home market, the monthly supply of unsold homes came in at 6 months in November, which was 25 percent lower than the 8 months of supply in November 2018, and equal with the 6 months of supply in October of this year. Through the first 11 months of 2019, the level of unsold supply in the overall Cape single-family home market has averaged 6.36 months, which matched the average of 6.36 months during the first 11 months of last year. Right now, in the overall Cape Coral single-family home market, the numbers indicate we are edging up into a neutral market heading into year’s end.
Gulf access canal homes
In the Cape Coral single-family gulf access canal home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes came in at 8 months in November, which was 46.67 percent below the 15 months of supply in November 2018, and it was 14.29 percent less than the 9 months of supply in October of this year. Through the first 11 months of 2019, the level of unsold supply in this segment has averaged 8.73 months, or 9.44 percent less than the average of 9.64 months of supply during the first 11 months of last year. This current level of unsold supply in the Cape’s gulf access canal home segment places it in the high end of the neutral market range so far this year.
Sailboat access canal homes
In the Cape Coral single-family sailboat access canal home segment, which is a subgroup of gulf access homes, the monthly supply of unsold homes came in at 10 months in November, which was 44.44 percent below the 18 months of inventory in November 2018, but it was 25 percent higher than the 8 months of supply in October of this year. In the first 11 months of 2019, the level of unsold supply in this segment has averaged 8.91 months, or 15.55 percent lower than the average of 10.55 months of supply during the first 11 months of last year. This level of unsold supply in the Cape’s sailboat access canal home segment also places it in the higher end of being in a neutral market so far this year, which compares to last year, when this segment was already in a higher inventory buyer’s market.
Freshwater canal homes
In the Cape Coral single-family freshwater canal home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes came in at 8 months in November, which was 33 percent above the 6 months of supply in November 2018, and equal to the 8 months of unsold supply in October of this year. Through the first 11 months of 2019, the level of unsold supply in this segment has averaged 7 months, or 6.87 percent higher than the average of 6.55 months of supply during the first 11 months of last year. This places the freshwater canal home segment firmly in a neutral market heading into year’s end.
Dry lot homes
In the Cape Coral single-family dry lot (non-canal) home segment, the monthly supply of unsold homes came in at 5 months in November, which was 28.57 percent lower than the 7 months of unsold supply in November 2018, and equal to the 5 months of supply in October of this year. Through the first 11 months of 2019, the level of unsold supply in this segment has averaged 5.91 months, or 3.14 percent higher than the average of 5.73 months of supply during the first 11 months of last year. The dry lot home segment has now posted seven consecutive months with its monthly inventory level at 5 months. This indicates a strong demand from buyers, creating a lot of competition for any reasonably-priced homes in this segment, as dry lot homes tend to be the most affordable homes in Cape Coral.
(The sales data for this article was obtained from the Florida Realtors Multiple Listing Service Matrix for Lee County, Fla., as of Dec. 15, 2019. It was compiled by Bob and Geri Quinn and it includes information specifically for Cape Coral single-family homes, and does not include condominiums, short sales or foreclosures. The data and statistics are believed to be reliable, however, they could be updated and revised periodically, and are subject to change without notice. The Quinns are a husband and wife real estate team with the RE/MAX Realty Team office in Cape Coral. They have lived in Cape Coral for over 40 years. Geri has been a full-time Realtor since 2005, and Bob joined with Geri as a full-time Realtor in 2014. Their real estate practice is mainly focused on Cape Coral residential property and vacant lots.)