Analysis: Crist won’t be lock in Senate race
TALLAHASSEE (AP) – Gov. Charlie Crist will soon choose between a re-election bid that would likely be easy or a Senate race that would prove much tougher.
And if he chooses the Senate, the resulting domino effect could mean open seats for all five statewide races on the 2010 ballot and the best opportunity in more than a decade for Democrats to regain some power in Tallahassee.
So why would Crist risk a near sure-bet to run the fourth largest state in the country to become a member of the minority party in Washington? The question perplexes some Republican strategists.
“The only reason why this move makes sense is if you want to get out while the getting’s good and just go park yourself for the rest of your career,” said Tony Fabrizio, a Washington-based Republican pollster. “Let’s face it, unless he does something spectacular in the U.S. Senate and unless we win back the majority, the chances of getting the same notoriety as he’s gotten as the governor of Florida diminishes as a U.S. senator.”
Most Tallahassee insiders are convinced Crist will leave office after one-term for the chance to replace Republican Sen. Mel Martinez, who isn’t seeking a second term. He would immediately be considered the favorite to win, but Republican strategists say it won’t be as easy as it may seem now.
“He has a pool of goodwill with the voters – the question is how long does that pool of goodwill last if his opponents become an orchestrated chorus of the things that actually went wrong?” Fabrizio said.
And that might include a Republican challenger. Former state House Speaker Marco Rubio may enter the race soon.
Rubio hopes to appeal to the party’s conservative base and would likely challenge Crist’s commitment to party principles. Some Republicans aren’t happy that Crist stood with President Barack Obama to support the $787 billion stimulus package that was widely opposed by Republicans.
“It’s not outside the realm of possibilities that he (Rubio) can win just because … Crist does have problems with party conservatives,” said Republican consultant Roger Stone.
Crist is expected to announce his political plans when the Florida Legislature finishes its annual session, which has been extended until May 8 because of budget wrangling.
“I’m so involved in what’s happening here, I really haven’t thought about it,” he said last week.
An April Quinnipiac University poll showed 66 percent of voters approve of the way Crist is doing his job, compared to 23 percent who disapprove. But more Republican respondents disapproved of Crist’s job performance than Democrats, 25 percent to 20 percent.
So far no major Democrats have openly considered challenging Crist if he runs for re-election.
But Crist can expect the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to raise millions against him in a Senate race.
The stakes are high nationally. With Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter switching from Republican to Democrat and Democrat Al Franken holding a slim lead in a Minnesota race that’s still being challenged by Republican incumbent Norm Coleman, Democrats are on the verge of having 60 senators – the number they need to keep Republicans from filibustering to stop the Democratic agenda.
U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek of Miami and state Sen. Dan Gelber of Miami Beach are the two major Democrats in the race. Meek has already deposited about $2 million in his campaign account.