Fla. Senate now race a toss-up
TALLAHASSEE (AP) – It’s likely Jeb Bush could have tapped his reputation as governor and an extensive fundraising network to keep a key U.S. Senate seat – and possibly a filibuster-proof majority – out of Democratic hands in 2010.
But the president’s younger brother said he won’t run for Republican Mel Martinez’ Senate seat, and political experts say Florida’s race is a toss-up. Neither party has come up with a name as big as Bush, the only Republican elected to two terms as the state’s governor.
It could prove a challenge for the once-dominant GOP in the wake of President-elect Barack Obama’s victory in Florida, as Democrats widened their grassroots operation and stepped up their fundraising efforts.
“It’s going to be a big race, it’s going to be an expensive race,” said Jamie Miller, a Florida-based Republican political consultant who has worked on Senate and statewide campaigns. “The stakes are much higher.”
If Al Franken’s recount victory in Minnesota holds, Democrats will have 59 seats, just one shy of being able to stop a Republican filibuster. With complete Senate control on the line, both parties will put a lot of resources into Florida.
Bush, who won the 1998 and 2002 gubernatorial elections by more than 10 percentage points, announced this week he wouldn’t run after previously saying he would consider it. Now, only two candidates known to be considering a Senate run have won a statewide race: Democratic Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink and Republican Attorney General Bill McCollum. Each would have the advantage of name recognition and a statewide support network in a primary.
There also are several congressmen from both parties considering a run, as well as former legislative leaders.
Until recently, Republicans dominated Florida politics. Between 2000 and 2004, Republicans won seven of eight statewide races, while building leads in the state Legislature and in Florida’s representation in Congress. The state GOP raised more money and had a strong grassroots operation.
But Democrats have done a better job registering new voters and turned out more early voters during November’s presidential election, helping Obama carry Florida.