‘Above average’ season predicted for 2022: Be prepared
For the seventh consecutive year, top forecasters are predicting an above-average Atlantic hurricane season that officially starts June 1.
Reports from both AccuWeather and the team at Colorado State University show indications this year will continue the trend of named storms arriving more often than usual, and talks of pushing the official date of hurricane season continue.
AccuWeather’s Global Weather Center and its team of tropical weather experts, led by veteran meteorologist Dan Kottlowski, project an above-active season that could result in 16-20 named storms, of which six to eight could become hurricanes. They also predict of those hurricanes, three to five could become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher, maximum sustained winds of 111mph+). In 2021, there were 21 named storms, seven hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. Of the 21 named storms last year, eight had a direct impact to the U.S. The 30-year average of named storms is 14 per year.
To make such a long-range prediction, Kottlowski’s team studied various weather trends, hurricane seasons of the past, and climatological models to help shape the outlook for 2022.
Often used to paint a picture of the upcoming season is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) — whether the waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean are warmer or cooler, typically referred to as El Niño (warmer) or La Niña (cooler).
Current forecasts show the existing La Niña pattern to shift to an ENSO-neutral phase by the late spring or early summer, meaning water temperatures in this zone of the Pacific will be closer to average.
Yes, the waters of the Pacific play a major role in the Atlantic hurricane season. Experts say during La Niña patterns, wind shear becomes less prevalent in the atmosphere over the Atlantic.
As of March 30, Kottlowski, who has been with AccuWeather for more than four decades, says a weak La Niña is in place and it is expected to persist through the beginning of the tropical season. He said if La Niña is here to stay, or even strengthens, there is a possibility of more than 20 named storms this season.
Kottlowski noted that in addition to the presence of La Niña, above-normal sea-surface temperatures in key tropical development regions will result in a higher-than-normal chance of preseason development for the eighth year in a row. He said temperatures were already above normal in many areas that meteorologists closely scrutinize for tropical systems during late March.
“Sea-surface temperatures are above normal over much of the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean and even off the East Coast of the United States, especially the southeast coast of the United States, and these are critical areas for early season development,” Kottlowski said in a release. This includes much of the central Atlantic, the chunk of the ocean forecasters refer to as the main development region, he added.
AccuWeather officials said sea-surface temperatures near Key West, were about 76-78 degrees as of March 28, which is about 1.6 to 3.8 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.
Officials said waters are currently cooler in the eastern Atlantic and toward the coast of Africa, but meteorologists expect that the waters will be sufficiently warm enough in that part of the basin by the peak of the season in middle to late August.
The northwestern part of Africa also helps shape the upcoming season. Forecasters predict strong winds to produce frequent tropical waves down the road this season. These tropical waves move across the Sahara Desert in northern Africa and into the open Atlantic where they can become better organized into tropical depressions or tropical storms.
Kottlowski has previously said that about 85% of all tropical storm development can be linked back to tropical waves, which are areas of low pressure in the atmosphere that are typically situated north to south and move westward from Africa into the Atlantic.
With the official start of the season still a month away, Kottlowski is urging people to begin hurricane preparations now, particularly given global supply chain issues along with the heightened possibility of an early storm.
“Don’t wait until June to prepare,” he said. “We’ve had preseason development over the last seven years and certainly you need to prepare now. So now’s the time to get your hurricane plan in place.”
The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team is predicting 19 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30. Of those, researchers expect nine to become hurricanes and four to reach major hurricane strength.
So far, the 2022 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1996, 2000, 2001, 2008, 2012 and 2021, CSU officials said. “Our analog seasons generally exhibited near- to somewhat above-normal Atlantic hurricane activity,” said Phil Klotzbach, research scientist in the CSU Department of Atmospheric Science and lead author of the report.
The team predicts that 2022 hurricane activity will be about 130% of the average season from 1991-2020. By comparison, 2021’s hurricane activity was about 120% of the average season. The 2021 hurricane season had eight continental U.S. named storm and two continental U.S. landfalling hurricanes, including Category 4 Hurricane Ida which battered the central Gulf Coast and then brought devastating flooding to the mid-Atlantic and northeast US.
The CSU team will issue forecast updates on June 2, July 7 and Aug. 4. As always, the researchers caution coastal residents to take proper precautions.
“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season,” Bell said.
To reach CJ HADDAD, please email cjhaddad@breezenewspapers.com